Recent Trends in Gun Crime Figures

The publication of the latest gun crime figures for England and Wales (for the year ending December 2007 excluding air weapons) was greeted with media headlines about a 4% increase compared with the corresponding period in 2006. There is no argument that the total number of offences was higher than for the year ending December 2006 but this did not tell the whole story. The number was actually less than for the year ending September 2007. The statistics certainly did not merit the comment of the Shadow Home Secretary David Davis that "The latest figures show that .... gun crime continues to rise unabated". Gun crime figures are now released frequently, every three months, and so rather than focus on a single pair of statistics commentators should be looking at overall trends such as those shown in the graphs below. There is no indication from these that gun crime is "rising unabated".

Not surprisingly the general public is frightened by gun crime, even though it is lower in Britain than in most other countries. To play on this fear and misrepresent the situation for political purposes is irresponsible. More action is needed, but future debate must be accompanied by a more honest interpretation of the statistics.